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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."